Health insurance premium increases for 2027: Proposed rates by state and what consumers should know

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Proposed individual market premium increases for 2027 have been published in about a third of the states as of mid-July, with a median proposed increase of about 14%.1

Basic details of initial 2027 rate filings will be available for every state on ratereview.healthcare.gov starting on July 31, 2026.2

After last year’s increases, another round of double-digit rate increases may sound alarming. But proposed rate increases do not necessarily reflect what Marketplace enrollees will ultimately pay, and several key factors make the outlook for 2027 very different than what we saw for 2026.

Here are the proposed weighted average health insurance rate increases that are available at this point:

* Market share details are not available in Hawaii or Kentucky, so a straight average has been calculated rather than a weighted average that accounts for each carrier’s enrollment.

Proposed 2027 individual market rate increases by state
State Average proposed increase
Vermont 6.5%3
Iowa 6.7%4
Washington, DC 9.5%5
Hawaii 11.1%*6
Minnesota 11.9%7
Massachusetts 12.9%8
Maryland 13.7%9
Illinois 14.1%10
Michigan 14.2%11
Connecticut 16.2%12
Maine 16.8%13
Oregon 17.5%14
Indiana 19.3%15
Kentucky 19.6%*16
Rhode Island 20.1%17
Georgia 20.7%18
New York 20.7%19
Washington 22.4%20

Federal subsidy enhancements expired last year, driving up the average net (after-subsidy) Marketplace premiums by 58% in 2026,21 even though many people downgraded to lower-priced Bronze plans.

Had the subsidy enhancements had been extended, premium subsidies would have been larger, offsetting the last year’s underlying premium growth – which was significantly larger than we had seen for the last several years.22

(Premium subsidies are actually larger in 2026 than they were in 2025. In 2026, the average premium subsidy is $650/month, up from $550/month in 2025. But the average full-price premium grew by even more: It was $619/month in 2025, and increased to $741/month in 2026, despite all the people who downgraded their coverage.)23

Here’s why 2027 will be different, despite the double-digit rate increase proposals that we’re seeing so far:

  • Most Marketplace enrollees still get premium subsidies, even after the subsidy enhancements expired. During the open enrollment period for 2026 coverage, 87% of enrollees qualified for premium subsidies.24
  • The subsidies are designed to keep pace with the cost of the benchmark (second-lowest-cost) Silver plan in each area. So as premiums rise, so should subsidies. The reason people are paying much higher premiums this year, even if they’re still getting a subsidy, is because the expiration of the subsidy enhancements resulted in a significant increase in the percentage of income that people have to pay for their coverage.
  • For 2027, the percentage of income that people have to pay themselves will be indexed just the way it was each year from 2015 to 2021, but it won’t be the sort of drastic change that we saw for 2026.

The short story: For most Marketplace enrollees, larger subsidies will likely offset some or all of the premium increases for 2027. But the full brunt of the premium increases will mostly impact Marketplace enrollees who aren’t eligible for a subsidy, plus anyone who buys individual market coverage outside the Marketplace, where subsidies aren’t available.

Why Marketplace premiums are increasing

The factors driving full-price premiums higher for 2027 include some usual culprits and some that stem from recent federal changes. As is typically the case, the largest driver of higher premiums is the ever-increasing cost of healthcare. This includes a variety of factors, including higher hospital and drug costs (including the cost of GLP-1 medications), higher labor costs, and increased utilization of medical services.1

Insurers also point to general economic inflation as a factor that has pushed prices higher across the board in recent years, including the price of healthcare.

Insurers also note that the expiration of the federal subsidy enhancements is expected to result in continued deterioration of the health of the overall risk pool in 2027, as healthier enrollees drop their coverage, leaving a sicker risk pool that costs more to insure on a per-person basis. Insurers also point to some other recent federal rule changes that are projected to result in lower enrollment (and thus a sicker risk pool), including the 2025 Marketplace Integrity rule, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and the 2027 Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters.1

Will I qualify for a subsidy in 2027 if I don’t qualify in 2026?

Because the subsidy enhancements were allowed to expire, the “subsidy cliff” returned in 2026. This means subsidy eligibility ends abruptly if household income goes above 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL), regardless of how much the household has to spend on health insurance.

During the open enrollment period for 2025 coverage, 92% of Marketplace enrollees qualified for a subsidy, but that dropped to 87% in 2026,25 largely because of the return of the subsidy cliff.

The subsidy cliff will still exist in 2027, so subsidies will not be available if household income is more than 400% FPL. But because of annual increases in the FPL, the income level at which subsidy eligibility ends will be a little higher in 2027:26

  • A single person in the continental U.S. will qualify for a subsidy with an income as high as $63,840, up from $62,600 in 2026.
  • A household of four in the continental U.S. will qualify for a subsidy with a household income as high as $132,000, up from $128,600 in 2026.

Make sure you understand how household income is calculated under the ACA, as it’s a unique version of MAGI. And keep in mind that contributions to a health savings account or pre-tax retirement account will reduce your ACA-specific MAGI.

If I get a premium subsidy, will my subsidy increase in 2027?

If the cost of the benchmark plan in your area increases, your subsidy amount will generally increase too, assuming your income remains fairly steady.

But the benchmark plan is just one plan, and there are dozens of plans available in most areas. So it’s important to understand that the size of your subsidy is tied to the price of the benchmark plan, not the price of your specific plan.

Depending on the discrepancy between how much your plan’s premium changes and how much the benchmark plan’s premium changes, you may find that your subsidy doesn’t keep pace with your premium. But it’s also possible for the subsidy amount to increase by more than the premium increase for your plan, making your plan more affordable in the coming year.

Either way, it’s always a good idea to carefully comparison shop during open enrollment, which starts on November 1 in most states.

Should I switch to a different Marketplace plan for 2027?

Renewing your current plan for 2027 – if it’s still available – might be the best option, or you might be better served by switching to a different plan. You won’t know until you compare the plans available in your area during open enrollment.

Pay close attention to any notifications you get from your health plan and the Marketplace as we get closer to the start of open enrollment. If your net health insurance premium is increasing for 2027, you might prefer a different plan. But choosing a health insurance policy involves a lot more than just premiums, so be sure you consider all aspects of the various plans before picking the one you want for 2027.

Note: Roughly 700,000 people will need to select new plans for 2027 because of carriers exiting the Marketplace at the end of 2026. If your carrier is leaving the Marketplace and you pick a new plan by December 31, it will take effect on January 1, ensuring that you have seamless coverage.

Final rates could differ from proposed rates

The proposed rate increases listed above are initial proposals, so they could change before they’re finalized. In nearly all states, the rate review process is done by the state,27 and there’s significant variation in terms of how much approved rates tend to differ from the rates that the insurers initially file.

Last year, for example, New York regulators approved an overall average rate increase of 7.1% for 2026 individual market plans, which was significantly smaller than the 13.5% average rate increase the insurers had proposed.28

But in Idaho, the approved health insurance rates were nearly identical to the insurers’ proposals, except for two carriers, one of which ended up with a larger-than-proposed rate increase, and one of which ended up with a smaller-than-proposed rate increase.29

Footnotes

  1. “How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2027” Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker. July 8, 2026
  2. “Timing of Submission of Rate Filing Justifications for the 2026 Filing Year for Single Risk Pool Coverage Effective on or after January 1, 2027” Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Feb. 23, 2026
  3. “Vermont: First out of the gate with preliminary 2027 ACA rate filings: up 6.5% on average” ACA Signups. May 28, 2026
  4. “Health Insurance Rate Increase Data” Iowa Insurance Division. Accessed July 2, 2026
  5. “Proposed 2027 Health Insurance Rate Filings” (For weighted average calculation, CareFirst HMO has 3,042 enrollees, CareFirst PPO/GHMSI has 8,788 enrollees, and Kaiser has 2,387 enrollees) DC Department of Insurance, Securities, and Banking. Accessed June 9, 2026
  6. “Hawaii SERFF Filings” (Tracking numbers KAHA-134973969 and HMSA-134976042) Accessed June 29, 2026
  7. “Individual Market Proposed Average Rate Changes for Plan Year 2027” Minnesota Commerce Department. Accessed June 16, 2026. And “2027 Rate Changes – Minnesota: +11.9% indy, +15.1% sm. group (preliminary)” ACA Signups. June 17, 2026
  8. “2027 Health Insurance Rates” Massachusetts Division of Insurance. Accessed June 9, 2026
  9. “Health Carriers Propose Affordable Care Act Premium Rates for 2027” Maryland Insurance Administration. June 26, 2026
  10. “Affordable Care Act (ACA) – Illinois Rate Filings” (weighted average is based on enrollment totals pulled from the filings on that page: HCSC has 240,252 enrollees, Celtic has 16,493, Mercy Care has 2,070, Molina has 118, Oscar has 22,291, and United Healthcare has 59,068). Illinois Department of Insurance. Accessed June 10, 2026
  11. “2027 Michigan Health Insurance Rate Change Requests” Michigan Department of Insurance and Financial Services (DIFS). July 14, 2026
  12. “Health Insurance Rates for 2027” Connecticut Insurance Department. Accessed June 9, 2026
  13. “SERFF Filings: MECH-134922366; HPHC-134972423; ATEM-134962217” Maine SERFF. Weighted average rate increase based on enrollment numbers in SERFF filings: Maine CHO had 17,313 enrollees, Harvard Pilgrim had 13,374, and Anthem had 31,134. Accessed June 9, 2026
  14. “Each county in Oregon to have at least three choices in the individual market; reinsurance program keeps 2027 proposed health rates lower than anticipated” Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services. Jun. 8, 2026
  15. “Indiana SERFF Filings” (Filing numbers: Anthem: AWLP-134814956 (105,770 enrollees); Coordinate Care: CECO-134977902 (63,592 enrollees); United HealthCare: UHLC-134932652 (507 enrollees). Accessed June 19, 2026
  16. “Rate Filing Summary, WellCare Health Plans of Kentucky” And “Rate Filing Summary, Anthem Health Plans of Kentucky” And “Rate Filing Summary, Molina Healthcare of Kentucky” Kentucky Department of Insurance. July 1, 2026
  17. “2027 Requested Commercial Health Insurance Rates Have Been Submitted to OHIC for Review” Rhode Island Office of the Health Insurance Commissioner. June 15, 2026
  18. “2027 Rate Changes – Georgia +20.7% for unsubsidized indy market enrollees” ACA Signups. July 13, 2026
  19. “Summary of Requested 2027 Rate Actions” And “Requested Rate Actions – Additional Information” New York State Department of Financial Services. Accessed June 12, 2026
  20. “Thirteen health insurers request average 22.4% rate increase for 2027 individual market” Washington State Office of the Insurance Commissioner. May 26, 2026
  21. “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Column AB) And “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Column AG) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Accessed July 10, 2026
  22. “Marketplace Average Monthly Benchmark Premiums (2014-2026, U.S. trend graph)” KFF.org. Accessed July 13, 2026
  23. “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Column AA and AK) And “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Columns AF and AP). Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Accessed July 10, 2026
  24. “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Columns H and AO) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Accessed July 10, 2026
  25. “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Columns H and AJ) And “2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files” (State-level PUF, Columns H and AO) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Accessed July 10, 2026
  26. “2025 Poverty Guidelines” and “2026 Poverty Guidelines” U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. Accessed July 10, 2026
  27. “State Effective Rate Review Programs” Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Accessed July 10, 2026
  28. “Summary of Requested & Approved 2026 Rate Actions” New York Department of Financial Services. Aug. 29, 2025
  29. “Idaho Rate Review Individual” (2026 Summary Page). Idaho Department of Insurance. Accessed July 10, 2026

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